EIA: 2016 Ethanol Consumption At 14.29 Billion Gallons

  • Thursday, 14 July 2016 11:14

The Energy Information Administration (EIA), in its latest Short Term Energy Outlook report, expects ethanol consumption this year to total 14.29 billion gallons, indicating an increase in ethanol consumption in the second half of the year.

In terms of production, the EIA expects to the total volume to be 15.06 billion gallons, indicating exports will clock in at at 770 million gallons. The EIA's forecast for 2017 in terms of production and consumption are the same as 2016. 

In 2015, 14.8 billion gallons of ethanol was produced and 13.93 billion gallons was consumed.  

According to the EPA's RIN data, a total of 6.08 billion gallons of ethanol has been produced this year as of May. On an annualized basis, that works out to a full year production of 14.59 billion gallons, well below the EIA's forecast.

In terms of exports, the RFA reports 400.7 million gallons have been shipped out this year as of May, which translates to 961.6 million gallons on an annualized basis. Using both the annualized production and export numbers, ethanol consumption this year will be at 13.63 billion gallons, far below the EIA's forecast or even last year's consumption volume of 13.93 billion gallons. 

Still, it should also be noted that exports may not hit 961.6 million gallons this year. In 2015 and 2014, ethanol exports were 844 million gallons and 846 million gallons respectively while as noted above, using the EIA's forecast, exports in 2016 will total 770 million gallons.

Nonetheless, considering the EIA's forecast, are we looking at a significant increase in ethanol production and consumption in the coming months?