Feb 21, 2023
The USDA’s Economic Research Service on Feb. 7 published a report discussing its analysis of U.S. Energy Information Administration data and predicting possible domestic and global demand for ethanol through 2030.
EIA’s various outlook scenarios through 2030 predict that U.S. gasoline consumption could decrease by as much as 3.3 percent or increase by as much as 5.3 percent over the next decade when compared to 2021 levels. For E85, the EIA predicts U.S. consumption will grow between 1.4 percent and 10.4 percent between 2021 and 2030, depending on U.S. economic growth over the decade. “The projected increase in ethanol consumption across all scenarios—despite falling gasoline consumption in some scenarios—is due in part to EIA’s assumption that the Renewable Fuel Standard will increase total U.S. consumption of renewable fuels,” said the ERS researchers in the report.
Globally, the USDA report specifically looks a historical blends (HB) scenario and a targeted blends (TB) scenario. Under the HB scenario, fuel ethanol consumption is expected to increase by 5.7 percent between 2018 and 2030, driven primarily by increased demand in India, Brazil and China. Between 2021 and 2030, ethanol consumption is expected to increase by 7.4 percent, due primarily to increased demand in Canada, China and Brazil. Under the TB scenario, international fuel ethanol consumption could increase by 180 percent between 2018 and 2030, due primarily to increased demand in Canada, China and Brazil. Between 2021 and 2030, ethanol consumption could increase by 173 percent, also primarily due to increased demand in Canada, China and Brazil.
A full copy of the USDA report is available on the ERS website.
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